Pair #5107

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-PNYH

Valero Texas Open: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5690

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-PNYH

Valero Texas Open: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8582

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:22:54Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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