Pair #5081

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MMEI

Valero Texas Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 359

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMEI

Valero Texas Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1418

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:22:18Z

Reasoning: If Meissner finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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