Pair #508

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MROZ

Will Marcelo Rozo win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18758

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcelo Rozo wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MROZ

Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12293

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcelo Rozo finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:57Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top-5 finish. However, finishing top 5 does not imply winning (could finish 2nd–5th).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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