Pair #5078

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MMEI

Will Mac Meissner win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 202178

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mac Meissner wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMEI

Valero Texas Open: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1418

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Mac Meissner finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:22:01Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top-20 finish. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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