Pair #5074

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MMCC

Will Matthew McCarty lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15740

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 563

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:22:01Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not require leading after R1, and leading after R1 does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue