Pair #5069

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3508

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denny McCarthy has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-DMCC

Will Denny McCarthy lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104076

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denny McCarthy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:22:01Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could collapse in R2), and making the cut does not require having led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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