Pair #5068

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6934

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22500

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:21:43Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10, but finishing top 10 does not require finishing top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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