Pair #5062

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22500

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-DMCC

Valero Texas Open: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28739

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:21:43Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20, but finishing top 20 does not require finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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