Pair #506

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MROZ

Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7243

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcelo Rozo makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MROZ

Will Marcelo Rozo lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17684

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marcelo Rozo is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:57Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could lead R1 but miss the cut after R2), and making the cut does not require leading after R1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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