Pair #5045

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-CKIR

Will Chris Kirk lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18255

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Kirk is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-CKIR

Valero Texas Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1156

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:21:27Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not require finishing top 10. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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