Pair #5043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-CKIR

Valero Texas Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1156

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CKIR

Valero Texas Open: Will Chris Kirk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Kirk
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4471

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Kirk finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:21:10Z

Reasoning: If Kirk finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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