Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MROZ
Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13470
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Marcelo Rozo finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MROZ
Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30831
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Marcelo Rozo finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:26Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. However, finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A