Pair #5024

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SJAE

Valero Texas Open: Will Stephan Jaeger make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1080

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 44400

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:20:51Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require having led after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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