Pair #5023

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SJAE

Valero Texas Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2212

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SJAE

Valero Texas Open: Will Stephan Jaeger make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1080

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:20:51Z

Reasoning: A top 20 finish requires having made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without surviving the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue