Pair #5021

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 192606

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-SJAE

Valero Texas Open: Will Stephan Jaeger make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1080

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:20:51Z

Reasoning: To win the tournament, Jaeger must have made the cut. Winning logically necessitates having made the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not mean he wins.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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