Pair #5020

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 44400

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 192606

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:20:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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