Pair #502

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MROZ

Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30831

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcelo Rozo finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MROZ

Valspar Championship: Will Marcelo Rozo make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marcelo Rozo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7243

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcelo Rozo makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:26Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in a tournament requires making the cut, since players who miss the cut do not finish in the top 20. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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