Pair #5008

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4518

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-THOG

Will Tom Hoge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47449

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:20:14Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player can lead R1 and still miss the cut. Making the cut does not require having led after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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