Pair #5003

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2052

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-THOG

Valero Texas Open: Will Tom Hoge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4052

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:20:14Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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