Pair #4995

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-CHOF

Valero Texas Open: Will Charley Hoffman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Charley Hoffman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4967

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charley Hoffman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CHOF

Valero Texas Open: Will Charley Hoffman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Charley Hoffman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 976

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Charley Hoffman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:19:56Z

Reasoning: If Charley Hoffman finishes top 20, he must have made the cut to compete in the final rounds and achieve that finishing position. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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