Pair #4978

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-JHIG

Valero Texas Open: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1800

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joe Highsmith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JHIG

Valero Texas Open: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1654

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joe Highsmith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:19:38Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish necessarily implies a top 10 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing 7th is top 10 but not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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