Pair #4976

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JHIG

Valero Texas Open: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1654

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joe Highsmith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-JHIG

Valero Texas Open: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 810

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joe Highsmith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:19:38Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish necessarily implies a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing, say, 15th is top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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