Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VATO26-EGRI
Valero Texas Open: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Emiliano Grillo
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 887
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Emiliano Grillo finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-EGRI
Valero Texas Open: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Emiliano Grillo
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1062
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Emiliano Grillo finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:19:21Z
Reasoning: A top 10 finish necessarily means a top 20 finish (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A