Pair #495

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5395

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

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Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:26Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 in LIV Golf South Africa has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour major. These are completely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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