Pair #4946

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-ZDOU

Will Zecheng Dou lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Zecheng Dou
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12985

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zecheng Dou is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-ZDOU

Valero Texas Open: Will Zecheng Dou finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Zecheng Dou
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 605

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zecheng Dou finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:18:45Z

Reasoning: A top 10 final finish does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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