Pair #494

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187393

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:26Z

Reasoning: LIV Golf South Africa is not one of the four major championships (Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open Championship), so winning it does not imply winning a major. And winning a major does not imply winning LIV Golf South Africa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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