Pair #492

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6876852

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: The Masters is one of the four PGA Tour majors. If Rahm wins the Masters, he necessarily wins a major in 2026. The reverse does not hold — he could win a different major without winning the Masters.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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