Pair #4913

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2584

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 133075

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:18:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player can lead R1 and then play poorly in R2 and miss the cut. And making the cut does not imply leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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