Pair #4906

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10483

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MTHO

Valero Texas Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30328

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:17:49Z

Reasoning: A top-10 finish is a subset of top-20, so top 10 implies top 20. The reverse does not hold — a player could finish 11th-20th and not be top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue