Pair #490

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187393

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6876852

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and winning LIV Golf South Africa are entirely separate tournaments. No logical dependency in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8410
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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