Pair #4899

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32540

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RHIS

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryo Hisatsune
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1578

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryo Hisatsune has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:17:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing the tournament, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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