Pair #4888

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RFOW

Will Rickie Fowler win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 287851

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RFOW

Valero Texas Open: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rickie Fowler
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4908

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rickie Fowler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:16:17Z

Reasoning: If Rickie Fowler wins the Valero Texas Open, he necessarily finishes in the top 1, which is within the top 20. A win logically necessitates a top-20 finish. The reverse does not hold: a top-20 finish does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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