Pair #488

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5395

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10243

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 final finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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