Pair #487

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187393

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

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Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10243

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: If Rahm wins LIV Golf South Africa, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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