Pair #4867

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXGRANDSLAM-CALC26-3

How many Grand Slams will Carlos Alcaraz win in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAM
Entity: 3+ Grand Slam wins
Expiration: 2026-09-15T14:00:00Z
Volume: 21162

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carlos Alcaraz wins at least 3 tennis Grand Slams in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXGRANDSLAM-JSIN26-3

How many Grand Slams will Jannik Sinner win in 2026?

Series: KXGRANDSLAM
Entity: 3+ Grand Slam wins
Expiration: 2026-09-15T14:00:00Z
Volume: 78614

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins at least 3 tennis Grand Slams in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:57Z

Reasoning: Sinner winning 3+ Grand Slams and Alcaraz winning 3+ Grand Slams are independent events involving different players. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -72.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: 106
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -76.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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