Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR01VALPAU-PAU
Will Tommy Paul win the Vallejo vs Paul : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-04-01T20:00:00Z
Volume: 9267
YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Paul wins the Vallejo vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-PAU
Will Tommy Paul win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 412288
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Paul wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:57Z
Reasoning: The French Open and the ATP Houston tournament are separate events. Winning the French Open does not require winning a Houston Round of 16 match, and winning a Houston Round of 16 match does not imply winning the French Open.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.2800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A