Pair #4866

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR01VALPAU-PAU

Will Tommy Paul win the Vallejo vs Paul : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-04-01T20:00:00Z
Volume: 9267

YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Paul wins the Vallejo vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-PAU

Will Tommy Paul win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 412288

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Paul wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:57Z

Reasoning: The French Open and the ATP Houston tournament are separate events. Winning the French Open does not require winning a Houston Round of 16 match, and winning a Houston Round of 16 match does not imply winning the French Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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