Pair #4865

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-EALE

Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 481

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ekaterina Alexandrova wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR01STAALE-ALE

Will Ekaterina Alexandrova win the Starodubtseva vs Alexandrova : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Ekaterina Alexandrova
Expiration: 2026-04-01T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1128

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ekaterina Alexandrova wins the Starodubtseva vs Alexandrova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:57Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning a WTA Charleston Round of 32 match — these are completely separate tournaments. And winning a Round of 32 match at Charleston does not imply winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.12% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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