Pair #4864

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-LFER

Will Leylah Fernandez win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 596

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR01FERKUD-FER

Will Leylah Fernandez win the Fernandez vs Kudermetova : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Leylah Fernandez
Expiration: 2026-04-01T21:10:00Z
Volume: 920

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Leylah Fernandez wins the Fernandez vs Kudermetova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Round of 32 match at the WTA Charleston event, and winning that Charleston R32 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -61.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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