Pair #4862

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-BSHE

Will Ben Shelton win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Ben Shelton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8926

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Shelton wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR01SHEZHA-SHE

Will Ben Shelton win the Shelton vs Zhang : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Ben Shelton
Expiration: 2026-04-01T20:00:00Z
Volume: 16700

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Shelton wins the Shelton vs Zhang professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:40Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 does not require winning a Round of 16 match at the Houston ATP event, and winning that Houston R16 match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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