Pair #486

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP10-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXLIVTOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10243

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6876852

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at LIV Golf South Africa and winning the Masters are completely independent events with no logical necessity between them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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