Pair #4856

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 138459

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Harman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-BHAR

Valero Texas Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1310

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Harman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:40Z

Reasoning: If Harman leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 after Round 1 (the leader is #1). The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue