Pair #4843

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-BHAR

Valero Texas Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1310

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 274408

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:15:18Z

Reasoning: Winning the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically — a player can win despite a poor first round. And finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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