Pair #484

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVR1LEAD-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVR1LEAD
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5395

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11014

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and finishing top 5 overall does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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