Pair #4839

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-BHAR

Valero Texas Open: Will Brian Harman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 11951

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:58Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open are entirely separate achievements with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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