Pair #4837

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-BHAR

Valero Texas Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1310

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:58Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are entirely separate with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -70.26% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -74.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue