Pair #4834

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BHAR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4310

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 274408

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:58Z

Reasoning: The Valero Texas Open is not a major. Winning a major does not imply winning the Valero Texas Open, and winning the Valero Texas Open does not imply winning a major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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