Pair #4830

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-BHAR

Valero Texas Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1310

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BHAR

Will Brian Harman win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Brian Harman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1182236

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brian Harman wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:58Z

Reasoning: These are separate tournaments. Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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