Pair #483

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOUR-LIGSA26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the LIV Golf South Africa?

Series: KXLIVTOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187393

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the LIV Golf South Africa, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11014

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.8400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: If Rahm wins LIV Golf South Africa, he necessarily finishes 1st, which is within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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