Pair #4824

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1448

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MHOM

Valero Texas Open: Will Max Homa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max Homa
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7194

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Max Homa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-01T08:14:43Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold: finishing top 20 does not require finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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