Pair #482

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVTOP5-LIGSA26-JRAH

LIV Golf South Africa: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXLIVTOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11014

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.8400

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf South Africa golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6876852

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:01:09Z

Reasoning: These are completely independent tournaments. Finishing top 5 at LIV Golf South Africa has no logical bearing on winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3210
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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